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  • Bubble Talk

    So obviously we have quite the opportunity this weekend to not only fight for the Cleary but with the Quinnipiac result we've positioned ourselves nicely on the right side of the bubble.

    The CHN Pairwise Probability Matrix has 6 teams that are 100% locks and 2 more that are 99% locks - https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ra...lityMatrix.php

    That leaves 9) Northeastern (.5528) 10) Providence (.5524) 11) Western Michigan (.5489) t-12) Clarkson (.5488) t-12) Cornell (.5467) 14) Harvard (.5460) 15) UML (.5420) 16) Bowling Green (.5418) 17) Notre Dame (.5354) t-18) North Dakota (.5320) t-18) Penn State (.5313) 20) Lake Superior (.5273) 21) Union (.5246)

    Atlantic Hockey will be stealing the 16th spot so that leaves seven spots 9-15. Minnesota State for the WCHA, Ohio State for the B1G, and UMass for Hockey East are the only teams locked in to the national tournament, if those three teams win their conference tournaments that gives Tech a lot more room for error.

    With Hockey East having only one lock and three other teams on the bubble you'd have to think something would give and at least one of Northeastern, Providence, UML would be knocked out but I don't know if that should be expected. Lowell has three manageable games to end the season with a home and home with UNH and heading to the Gut to face Vermont for one, they'll proabably secure home ice with a high seed and it's going to be tough to beat them at Tsongas, if they got 5-0 in that stretch which is tough to do in college hockey they'll be in. If they lose any game though it will be a significant blow to their Pairwise. Northeastern has a bad BC team for 2 in a home and home and then the Huskies host UNH, another easy stretch probably resulting in home ice, Providence has @ UConn in a game they should win and then host BU and BC where they'll be the favorites to win those. It's college hockey but if these HE teams get hot and take advantage of the conference being top heavy, all in all HE securing 4 invites would shrink the bubble.

    HE Briefing: Root against Northeastern/Providence until they become a lock for the tourney, root against Lowell any game until they become eliminated. Root for UMass or Northeastern/Providence (if they become a lock) to win the conference tournament.

    In the NCHC you have St. Cloud and UMD at 100%, Denver is very close to 100% and should wrap it up this weekend at Omaha. All those teams need to win, win, win, St Cloud goes to Western Michigan for two games this weekend where Western has been really good at home historically, Western wraps it up with 2 games @ Miami the following weekend where they'll have a lot more at stake than Miami. UMD winning can games can only help us out too so hopefully they finish strong. One thing that could be worrying is North Dakota is at Colorado College for 2 and then host Nebraska-Omaha which is a favorable schedule for them, if they go 4-0 and get home ice then they become a major threat so root against the Sioux. Denver, St. Cloud, UMD would be doing us a large favor to win that conference tournament and eliminating the possibility of that conference stealing a bid.

    NCHC Briefing: Root for UMD first and foremost to win as many games as possible and win the NCHC conference tournament, if not them Denver or St. Cloud will do, if Western somehow becomes a lock they will do. Basically we don't want North Dakota or CC to win the conference tournament, I can't see Miami or Nebraska-Omaha doing anything. Root against North Dakota in all situations for their final 4 regular season games.

    The Big Ten is a mess so it'd be really nice if Ohio State figured things out and won that league. Notre Dame and Penn State end their seasons against each other in South Bend, it'd be ideal for those teams to split that series and flutter around their current Pairwise standing leaving them outside the top 15. If either one of those teams get hot and sweep and then say lose to a Michigan/Michigan State/Minnesota/Wisconsin in the Championship game they still probably have a shot at sneaking in so hopefully neither of them build momentum and we want no part of 3 B1G teams somehow sneaking in.

    B1G Briefing: Root for Ohio State to win the conference tournament, root for ND and Penn State to loss any game they can, hope the other teams don't steal a bid.

    As I mentioned Minnesota State is a lock, hopefully they win the conference tournament. Bowling Green has Alabama Huntsville who are 58th in the Pairwise, a loss to UAH would kill BG. Lake Superior lost a lot of their momentum getting swept by Northern Michigan on the road, they host Ferris State who won't really boost them in the Pairwise as Ferris is 57th. The WCHA has stolen a bid before with Michigan Tech doing so last year and this conference will be a prime target for that once again unless Minnesota State can finish off their regular season dominance.

    WCHA Briefing: Root for Minnesota State to win the conference tournament, if Bowling Green somehow becomes a lock they are fine too but it'd be best to root against BG have them lose whenever they can and the WCHA join Atlantic Hockey as a 1 bid league.

    One thing that's good with the ECAC Pairwise picture is we are home while Cornell and Harvard are on the road, Harvard will go to the capital district where them losing both games would be very nice. Cornell dropping a game to SLU would be a dream result, it's doubtful though so the Saturday night game will have obvious bubble implications. Union still has some work to do but sweeping Dartmouth and Harvard at home and securing first round home ice which would be a step in the right direction for them though they'd need more wins in the playoffs.

    ECAC Briefing: If Clarkson can't get to Placid they're basically all but eliminated from NCAA contention so they'll most likely need to at least get to the semis, beating Colgate and Cornell would go a long way in securing that. If we don't end up winning it all in Placid it'll be best Quinnipiac does as they're locked in. The 2nd round ECAC matchups are going to be no walk in the park, all three of Clarkson/Cornell/Harvard will control their own destiny and all signs point to a semi-final meeting at Placid between two of those three teams for the right to play in the Championship game but like for Clarkson last season it could secure your NCAA berth.

    All in all college hockey has so much parity there are no sure things, Clarkson could randomly lose to Colgate before beating Cornell but it's still fun to talk about the hypothetical scenarios and rooting for some upsets to our fellow bubble members. It will be an exciting race to the finish, it would give the program that much more momentum heading into next season with 2 consecutive NCAA appearances.

  • #2
    That's a ton of good analysis there, but I got a question. I've been wondering where Clarkson would sit in the pairwise now if we had beaten Canisius on the road and had reversed our one loss to SLU. We'd be at 23-8-1 overall and tied with Cornell for 1st in the league with 27 points. You're always going to lose some league games and the two losses at Penn State in October were not great, but those losses at Canisius and SLU really stick in my craw.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by dave techer View Post
      That's a ton of good analysis there, but I got a question. I've been wondering where Clarkson would sit in the pairwise now if we had beaten Canisius on the road and had reversed our one loss to SLU. We'd be at 23-8-1 overall and tied with Cornell for 1st in the league with 27 points. You're always going to lose some league games and the two losses at Penn State in October were not great, but those losses at Canisius and SLU really stick in my craw.
      Changing either the SLU loss or Canisius loss to a win puts Clarkson at #9 in the pairwise
      Changing both puts Clarkson at #8

      https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/ncaapwcr.php

      *Edit - Looks like the link doesn't save changes, use the "customize" tab to play around with results
      Last edited by goldenbriggsy; 02-25-2019, 09:45 AM.

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      • #4
        If we lay another Friday night egg, none of this will matter much. The only focus and worry right now should be on Friday night.

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        • #5
          If we lay an egg against Colgate they should be laying an egg right there with us for a 0-0 tie.

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          • #6
            Providence avoided a crucial loss to UConn tonight, end of 2 it was 2-2 and Providence scored 3 in a row to win 5-2.

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            • #7
              Nice set of results around the NCAA that were extremely favorable to any bubble team who won tonight, Union beating Harvard tomorrow would be huge, if we take care of business tomorrow we will have a good chance to solidify our spot on the bubble to a near lock position.

              - Northeastern loses to BC and they slide to 12th, they host BC tomorrow night where if the Eagles get the sweep that benefits us

              - Western Michigan gives up 2 goals in the final 3 minutes to lose 5-4 to St. Cloud, it'd be nice for the Huskies to get the sweep @ Western

              - UMass-Lowell gets shutout @ UNH 1-0, they host UNH tomorrow but that loss really hurt them

              - Bowling Green loses at home to the 58th ranked team in the Pairwise, Alabama-Huntsville, killer loss at this stage in the season, I'd say they'll have to win the WCHA to get in

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by cutothefrozen4 View Post
                Nice set of results around the NCAA that were extremely favorable to any bubble team who won tonight, Union beating Harvard tomorrow would be huge, if we take care of business tomorrow we will have a good chance to solidify our spot on the bubble to a near lock position.

                - Northeastern loses to BC and they slide to 12th, they host BC tomorrow night where if the Eagles get the sweep that benefits us

                - Western Michigan gives up 2 goals in the final 3 minutes to lose 5-4 to St. Cloud, it'd be nice for the Huskies to get the sweep @ Western

                - UMass-Lowell gets shutout @ UNH 1-0, they host UNH tomorrow but that loss really hurt them

                - Bowling Green loses at home to the 58th ranked team in the Pairwise, Alabama-Huntsville, killer loss at this stage in the season, I'd say they'll have to win the WCHA to get in
                The Goofers also beat Arizona State.

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                • #9
                  A little further down the bubble, NoDak loses to CC, taking away their slim chances to move into an at-large spot with a run in the NCHC tournament.

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                  • #10
                    Providence and BC were going into the 3rd tied 0-0 and Providence had their typical dominant 3rd period, I want no part of seeing that coaching staff and team if we get into the tourney.

                    Some leagues still have regular season games (Hockey East + NCHC) while the others are all starting their playoffs. In the B1G it'd be nice to see Michigan State at least take one from Notre Dame, I just don't see Sparty beating that stingy ND defense twice at home and it'd be helpful if Wisconsin could take out Penn State in those best of 3s, I'd say Wisconsin has the better chance and it'd give us a slight bump having already beaten them earlier in the year. Ohio State has the only bye because of being the 1 seed so hopefully they use that and next weekend in the Semi and the following weekend in the Final to win it all.

                    Bowling Green basically lost all hope of an at large with their Friday loss to Alabama-Huntsville but they're still within reach on paper but if they lose even one game to Michigan Tech they're out and would have to win the WCHA so hopefully they'll lose tonight and that will be done with. Minnesota State doesn't have a great history in the conference tournament since the new WCHA has been formed so hopefully this is the year, they're clearly the best team in that league and are fighting for a #1 seed still.

                    Northeastern takes on UNH tonight where it'd be really nice if UNH could pull that off, Lowell took a tough loss to UNH so they're in a similar spot to Bowling Green, barley hanging on and they'll need to beat Vermont at the Gutt to keep that slim hope alive. In the NCHC Western Michigan @ Miami for 2 series will be interesting, Western has had trouble getting saves and have taken a tumble from 8th a few weeks ago to 14th in the Pairwise, Miami is at 34 so even one loss would be killer for Western before entering the NCHC tournament gauntlet where they'll probably see a tough North Dakota team at home in the 4-5 matchup. The team I just mentioned scares me the most though and they're pretty low in the Pairwise at 20, North Dakota has Nebraska-Omaha for 2 at home where they should sweep, then probably heading to a struggling Western Michigan where if they win that series that'll give them a really nice bump in the Pairwise having earned 2 quality road wins.

                    In the ECAC it's all about matchups Union is sitting at 19 but I don't see them being a huge threat in terms of the bubble race but that could change if they come up here for the 2nd round, they'll be laying it all out there, my dream scenario would be Dartmouth beats SLU so that gives Harvard a tough to break down Dartmouth team, RPI upsets a struggling Yale, Union somehow gets knocked off by Colgate and then Brown beats Princeton. I just don't see Brown winning that series though and I don't see Union even losing a game to Colgate, anything can happen with Savory in net for RPI. Gun to my head I'd predict Dartmouth in 2, RPI in 3, Union in 2, Princeton in 2, if that plays out like I think we will be taking on Union.

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                    • #11
                      Pairwise bubble after last knight:
                      t-8) Providence (.5520) idle, Northeastern (.5516) beat UNH 4-0
                      10) Ariz St (.5496) No More Reg Season Games
                      11) Clarkson (.5494) idle
                      12) Cornell (.5477) idle
                      13) Harvard (.5435) idle
                      14) Western Michigan (.5424) beat Miami 5-1
                      15) Notre Dame (.5364) beat MichSt U 1-0
                      16) Bowling Green (.5362) beat Mich Tech 3-2
                      17) Union (.5322) beat Colgate 4-1
                      18) North Dakota (.5343) beat UNO 2-1
                      19) UMLowell (.5321) Tied UVM 2-2
                      t-20) Penn State (.5313) lost Wisc 4-3, Minny (.5264) beat Mich 3-2
                      22) Lake Superior (.5243) beat Bemidji 4-2
                      Vicb

                      Fan of the 2014 , 2017 & 2018 NC$$ Women's Div I Hockey National Champions http://letsgotech.com/roundtable/cor...om/lgtanim.gif
                      If Union can do it, why can't CCT http://letsgotech.com/roundtable/cor...om/lgtanim.gif

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                      • #12
                        Well I'm shocked Princeton didn't put up a fight against Brown, looking like we will get Yale unless SLU somehow pulls this out and wins again tomorrow. Yale looked very organized and both of their goalies were solid against RPI, they were one of the only teams to beat us at Cheel so I don't know what to think but they were terrible down the stretch and it killed them in the Pairwise. There won't be much time and space next weekend if it is the Bulldogs, they can really fly.

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                        • #13
                          Don't count Princeton out just yet. If they get it done tonight, I could see it going either way..



                          I'm not sure if any of you guys are tuned into the Brown Peinceton game, but the commentary is ridiculous. These guys are so hyped up, screaming and yelling.. you would think this was a stanley cup game 7.
                          Last edited by CheelFaithful92; 03-09-2019, 10:54 PM.

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                          • #14
                            Brown wins 6-5 over Princeton @ 3:30 of the 3rd OT. So Dartmouth vs SLU is the only series to go 3 games.
                            If Dartmouth wins it's Yale to CCT
                            If SLU wins it's Union to CCT
                            Vicb

                            Fan of the 2014 , 2017 & 2018 NC$$ Women's Div I Hockey National Champions http://letsgotech.com/roundtable/cor...om/lgtanim.gif
                            If Union can do it, why can't CCT http://letsgotech.com/roundtable/cor...om/lgtanim.gif

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                            • #15
                              Pairwise bubble after Sat knight:
                              8) Northeastern (.5516) idle
                              t-9) Providence (.5509) idle
                              t-9) Ariz St (.5497) No More Reg Season Games
                              11) Clarkson (.5495) idle
                              12) Cornell (.5477) idle
                              13) Western Michigan (.5444) beat Miami 6-1
                              14) Harvard (.5436) idle
                              15) Notre Dame (.5387) beat MichSt U 2-0
                              t-16) Bowling Green (.5382) beat Mich Tech 6-2
                              t-16) Union (.5342) beat Colgate 4-0
                              t-18) North Dakota (.5335) beat UNO 5-4
                              t-18) UMLowell (.5314) idle
                              t-20) Penn State (.5309) beat Wisc 6-2 Game 3 Sunday
                              t-20) Minny (.5287) beat Mich 4-1
                              22) Lake Superior (.5284) beat Bemidji 3-1

                              Vicb

                              Fan of the 2014 , 2017 & 2018 NC$$ Women's Div I Hockey National Champions http://letsgotech.com/roundtable/cor...om/lgtanim.gif
                              If Union can do it, why can't CCT http://letsgotech.com/roundtable/cor...om/lgtanim.gif

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